THE LEDGER — REFERENCE
AGI Timelines in 2026: who says what, on the record
Every major claim, dated and sourced. The 5-year spread between insiders and markets is the most consequential disagreement in any asset class.
| WHO | TIMELINE | AS OF | SOURCE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lab-insider private consensus (as reported by Daniel Kokotajlo) | 2027–2028 | Jul 2026 | link |
| Daniel Kokotajlo (ex-OpenAI, AI Futures Project) — 50% mark | ~2029–2030 | Jul 2026 | link |
| Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) — human-level range | as early as 2026–27 | 2025–26 statements | link |
| Demis Hassabis (DeepMind) — ~50% chance | by ~2030 | 2026 | link |
| Metaculus community — 25% / 50% odds | 2029 / 2033 | Feb 2026 | link |
| Polymarket — OpenAI reaches AGI by 2027 | ~10% odds | Jul 2026 | link |
How to read the spread
The people closest to the systems cluster years earlier than the broadest forecasting markets. Three readings are possible: insiders have information markets lack; insiders have incentives (hype and fear both sell); or the definitions differ. Our approach is to referee rather than opine — every claim above sits in our public ledger with resolution criteria, and gets graded when it resolves. Meanwhile the evidence that should move these numbers — task horizons, capex, deployment revenue, incidents — updates weekly on the indicator board.
This page is updated as claims change; each row keeps its as-of date so revisions are visible, not silent.
The weekly evidence brief, free
What moved the timelines this week — sourced and graded, every Monday.